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Keeping the evidence base up-dated and relevant in a
volatile housing market.

Introduction

Housing markets can be very volatile and Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMAs) need to be easily updatable and monitored regularly. This section looks at options and methods for doing this and sources of information from the Homes and Communities Agency and Local Government Yorkshire Humber.

Updating information

Primary data

When large-scale primary research has been included within a SHMA this can limit the ability to monitor the housing market, due to the expense and time-consuming nature of this type of research.

There should still also be collection of primary data sources. This may not be through large scale residential surveys but could include information gathered from local estate agents, lettings agents, developers or others familiar with the local housing market. This should give valuable insights into changes in the private housing market.

Secondary data

Analysis and interpretation of secondary data, where this is available and reliable, provides an alternative means by which local planning authorities can ensure that their evidence bases remain current.

Secondary data analysis enables authorities to track changing trends over time, and so develop an understanding as to how their local housing markets operate.

A comprehensive check list of relevant data sources is included in the templates (see key sources of existing data).

Many of the secondary data sources listed in the data sources template are updated on an annual (or more frequent) basis. 

The key exceptions to this are:

  • Household projections – updated every two to four years.
  • Index of multiple deprivation – updated every four to five years.
  • The Census – conducted every 10 years.

Various elements of the evidence base should be updated annually

  • Housing market: prices, types, new build, income inflation.
  • Affordable supply: number of social rented lettings, new build rates.
  • Affordable housing demand as a measure through local administrative records, such as Housing Registers and/or Choice Based Lettings.

In addition to this, it is important that the evidence base reflects new legislation or other changes that may impact on housing requirements.

The Assembly in partnership with the Government Office commissioned ECOTEC to produce a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) for each of the strategic housing markets in Yorkshire the Humber and an explanatory/overview report. Part of this work was the production of an overview report which includes guidance on refreshing the content of the analysis of the markets in order to keep the evidence base up to date. The overview report can be downloaded below. The Technical Note on refreshing the studies is available here Web link >>

In addition the Local Government Yorkshire Humber collects and distributes a region wide monthly housing market update for each Local authority which includes:

  • Average Overall House Price
  • Average Detached House Price
  • Average Semi Detached House Price
  • Average Terraced House Price 
  • Average Flat Price 
  • Time to sell in weeks 
  • Sale to asking price ratio

An example of a monthly report can be sourced from www.lgyh.gov.uk

The Regional Assembly produced a Housing Intelligence Report on the changing housing market in the region in June 2008. The document is also available from the LGYH website at: 

http://www.lgyh.gov.uk/The Library/Other Research/Housing/ 

HCA updates

The HCA provide a monthly Housing Market update Web link >>

  1. What is a Strategic Housing Market Assessment?
  2. Commissioning and preparing the brief for a Strategic Housing Market Assessment, including the issue of how far primary research should be carried out.
  3. Dealing with different housing markets within and across LA boundaries.
  4. Why does the evidence base comprise an Economic Viability Assessment of the proposed policy?
  5. Why is Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment part of the evidence base?
  6. How do I use the evidence base to establish targets for affordable housing?
  7. Understanding the need for additional social rented and intermediate housing, and the contribution of the private rented sector.
  8. Using the evidence base in negotiation.
  9. Keeping this evidence base up-dated and relevant in a volatile housing market.